Pulling together real-world numbers gets a little trickier. Find the total population of your district: The total population includes all the people who live in your district, regardless of whether they can vote or not. Determine the total number of voters: This is all the voters in the district who are eligible to vote and can possibly vote in the election.
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What is the expected voter turnout? This is the expected number of votes cast in this election.
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Not every voter is going to vote. In this case, let history be your guide.
If Trump were to win Florida again, Democrats would need to recapture three Midwestern states in the Rust Belt — or find substitutes — to win the presidency. If Democrats win Florida, any one of the three Rust Belt states would secure the presidency, unless Trump can pick off another blue state that Democrats won in Trump won these three states by less than a combined 80, votes , or just.
But that was still enough to get Trump to the to win.
But if Democrats lose all three states again, then they would need another path to the presidency. All of those states went to Trump in , but there are some indications from early polling that at least some might be among the battleground states in play in In recent modern elections, there have been a dozen or more truly competitive battlegrounds which could result in many various paths to electoral votes. For instance, despite the narrow popular vote margin in , more than two dozen states were decided by margins of 15 percentage points or more.
In , when the popular vote margin was seven percentage points, there were just 17 states which were won by such big margins.
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One way of looking at how the electoral map has changed in recent years is to evaluate which states are most likely to provide the electoral votes needed to secure During the and elections won by Barack Obama, Virginia and Colorado were the tipping point states. The party, however, is wrestling with how to exploit it as ruthlessly as Republicans do.
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Some observers fear the electoral college encourages voter suppression. Republican efforts to use voter ID laws to limit registration in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin will be closely scrutinised.
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So obviously the most important thing is to make sure we did not have a close election. While southern states such as Mississippi, Louisiana and Georgia have the highest proportions of African Americans in the country, those who vote for the Democrat are effectively ignored by the electoral college. It gives the impression everyone in the south is conservative.
What possible justification is there for winner takes all? The electoral college actually undermines democracy. Few expect Trump to win the popular vote. But in a chilling warning for Democrats, the New York Times suggested he could win the electoral college again, because mostly white working-class rust belt states remain at the centre of the electoral map. But he could do it again, like he did in , without the popular vote.
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